P6–P7 Venn probabilities finished, then P8 combined events. Starter 5/5. A17 5(x−3) = 2x+9 → x = 8 with three lines of working, over three weeks after securing — the spaced retest the queue asked for, though she skipped the 5x−15 = 2x+9 expansion line and did it mentally. A8 midpoint of (−3,5) and (7,1) → (2,3) correct including the negative, closing the thin-evidence loose end. P6-P7 two coins → 2/4 (not simplified). A1-A3 substitution 3a² − 2b with a = −2 → 2, with (−2)² = +4 handled correctly; her notation was hard to read but the method was sound and I wrongly queried a correct answer. P2-P3 ESTIMATE WORDING FINALLY LANDED, third time of asking and unprompted: gave both the small-sample criticism and "she should say approximately 0.15, or that 0.15 is an estimate". Venn probabilities off the class of 30: 4/4, all simplified, and she did NOT fall for the whole-circle trap — P(French) given as 18/30 = 3/5. P8 taught with the OR-add / AND-multiply rule and the sense-check that adding makes it bigger and multiplying smaller. Single-draw and two-draw questions with replacement all correct including the add/multiply decision, except that she labelled a single-event probability "multiply" when neither rule applies. Both-the-same-colour and exactly-one-red questions: she produced all the correct products unprompted but stopped before combining, needing one prompt to add the routes. Exit ticket incomplete — session ended at Q4. Q1 1/2, Q2 1/2 correct; Q3 12/64 correct but unsimplified; Q4 products correct, not yet added; Q5 (written) not attempted.
Finish the P8 exit ticket — Q5 was not attempted (one criticism of "the probability of rolling a 3 is 1/4" from 15 in 60 rolls). Then teach probability TREE DIAGRAMS, which the P6-P7 ref covers but which have never been taught. Starter: one simplifying-check question, and a frequency tree she confirms she has drawn.
| Topic | Name | Change | Evidence recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| P8 | Gap → Developing | Taught 8 Sep. OR-add / AND-multiply decision correct on every two-event question with replacement. Multi-route questions (both same colour, exactly one red) — all products correct unprompted, but needed one prompt to add the routes together in each case. Exit ticket cut short at Q4. | |
| P6-P7 | Developing → Developing | 8 Sep: Venn probabilities off the class of 30, 4/4 independent and all simplified, including P(French) = 18/30 = 3/5 rather than 12/30 — the whole-circle trap named on 7 Sep and cleared here. Two-coin sample space correct in the starter. | |
| P2-P3 | Developing → Secure | 8 Sep starter: vet weighs 40 puppies, 6 underweight, claims 0.15. Gave BOTH criticisms unprompted — sample too small, and it should be stated as approximately 0.15 or as an estimate. Third time asked, first time landed, after failures on 2 and 7 Sep. Calculation half evidenced independently across four separate sittings. | |
| A17 | Secure → Exam-ready | 8 Sep starter: 5(x−3) = 2x+9 → x = 8, working written out, more than three weeks after securing on 13 Aug. Spaced re-test passed. | |
| A8 | Secure → Secure | 8 Sep starter: midpoint of (−3,5) and (7,1) → (2,3), correct with a negative coordinate and order handled correctly. The harder order-load-bearing question the loose end called for. | |
| A1-A3 | Secure → Secure | 8 Sep starter: 3a² − 2b with a = −2, b = 5 → 2. (−2)² = +4 handled correctly — the classic substitution trap avoided. Ageing check passed after 9 weeks. | |
| P4-P5 | Developing → Developing | 8 Sep starter: gave "40 puppies is too small a sample" as a criticism unprompted — the sample-size reasoning that was the weak half on 4 Sep. |